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Probability on a live feed, with a historically calibrated and proven track record.

A calibrated probability for which direction the next range closes, across markets and timeframes, in real time.

78% blended accuracy · >80% on Tier A · calibrated (a stated 80% lands ~80%) · 8 years, walk-forward, out-of-sample.

Probability, not a trade call. Not investment advice.

By the numbers

Every number here is out-of-sample and scored. Nothing on this page is a backtest curve you can't check.

80.5%
Tier A accuracy, out-of-sample
+37%
Brier skill vs a coin flip
78%
A+B blended, steady all year
<1 pt
calibration error
8 yrs
walk-forward, out-of-sample
15.7k
Tier A predictions scored

What it is · what it's not

Clear on what you're getting, and what you're not.

What it is

  • A calibrated probability for which way the next range closes
  • A read across every market and timeframe, refreshed each bar
  • A live, scored track record you can watch hold
  • A way to stay on the right side of the market most of the time
  • An edge you can layer onto any strategy

What it's not

  • Not a buy or sell signal
  • Not a promise every call wins (80% still misses 1 in 5, by design)
  • Not financial advice
  • Not an execution or risk system; you bring entries, stops, sizing
  • Not a black box you trust blind; the receipt is public

How to read it

The engine publishes the odds on the next range. Here is how to read them.

The prediction

"NQ · next range UP · 77%" means a 77% chance the next range closes higher. It is the probability the next range closes up, not a momentary break or spike. The close is what counts, and it refreshes the moment each bar closes.

It's calibrated

When it says 70%, it lands ~70% over time. The number is a measured probability, not a hype figure.

Conviction tiers A & B

A is the model's strongest, most-corroborated read (highest hit-rate). B is strong. Those are the only two we publish, the weaker, noisier setups are filtered out before they ever reach you.

The grid

Every market across every timeframe at a glance. Blue leans up, pink leans down, a bolder number is a stronger lean. See where the odds are richest right now.

Prediction vs resolved

Prediction (ET) is when the read locked in; Resolved (ET) is when the next range actually closed in its direction. Every prediction is then scored on the live tracker, win or lose.

Your live receipt

The rolling-accuracy line rides above the 50% coin-flip mark when the edge is real, and you watch it hold, live, every day.

Under the hood it's a Markovian analysis of the market's ranges and structure, turning years of history into a single number: the odds of which way the next range closes. You never touch the math, you just read the probability. We publish the read, not the recipe. It gives you the odds on the next range, it does not place trades or tell you what to do. You bring the execution.

Free, live, right now

ES 15-minute probability with Telegram alerts, free forever. All 7 markets and 7 timeframes (15M-240M) unlock with Pro.

FREE
ES
15M range
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🔒 NQ · ES · YM · RTY · GC · CL · SI
All 7 markets, 7 timeframes (15M-240M), live A/B tiers, and full Telegram alerts, with Pro.

Included In Membership:

🟦

rangeProb live feed

The full web dashboard, every market and timeframe, live conviction tiers, updated every bar close.

🔔

rangeProb alerts

Clean, high-conviction predictions pushed to Telegram the moment they fire. Only the setups worth watching.

📈

rangeProb indicator

See the ranges and structure the probabilities are built on, right on your TradingView charts. The read and the picture, together.

Pricing

Start free with ES 15M. Go Pro for all 7 markets, every timeframe, and full alerts.

Free
$0
  • ES 15M, tiers A & B
  • Telegram alerts
  • Real time, every bar
Get started
Pro
$75/mo
  • All 7 markets × 7 timeframes (15M-240M)
  • A/B conviction tiers
  • Telegram prediction alerts
  • TradingView indicator
  • Live, scored track record
Go Pro

The proof

Every prediction scored against what the next range actually did. This is the live, walk-forward track record, the same tracker members watch.

200-prediction rolling average · x-axis = predictions back · dashed line = 50%

For desks & firms

License the calibrated prediction engine for your own stack. Diligence-ready: walk-forward, out-of-sample, 7 markets, 8 years, calibration error under 1 point.

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